Predictions from the CEO of Mercedes

The CEO of Mercedes posted an article with predictions of the future. Here is a selection focused on public policy matters:

• Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

• It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

• Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

• Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

• Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

• Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

Some conclusions: these changes would/will have a profound effect on infrastructure. We would reclaim the land now reserved for parking lots. The power grid is greatly diminished (don’t invest in electric utilities!). With electric automobiles, the oil business goes in the tank — which is why they are fighting so hard for every dollar they can get today.

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MCPS Planning Discussions

On Friday, we had another meeting with MCPS, this one with planning staff and their consultants. We talked about the need for school capacity.

In our city, we go through stages of project approvals for new housing – the master plan, sketch plan, schematic design plan (SDP), and permitting. It’s only at the last phase when a project is considered funded and eligible for MCPS to consider school capacity issues. But by then it’s really too late – people start moving in within a couple of years, but MCPS takes 6 years or more to provide capacity.

It would be best if we could get on the MCPS list as early as possible, probably at the sketch plan stage. It’s hard to approve more housing if we don’t know if there will be room in the local schools. A true chicken-and-egg problem.

We discussed some creative approaches. For example, there are new housing developments moving through the stages for the Kentlands commercial district. We suggested potential sites for a new school close by.

MCPS planning pushed back, saying that it is more efficient to build additions to small schools like Dufief, where 350 students could be accommodated in a bigger school, rather than a new school for 750 where there are not enough students to fill it up yet.

The openness for discussions and for creativity is healthy, but there are challenges caused by the slow timetables at MCPS and the quicker ones here in Gaithersburg.

Toward the end of the discussion, I raised the issue of the deep deficit in classroom space in the system. By my math, MCPS needs to spend $500 million just to get kids out of portables and to handle the growth already known, plus perhaps another $500 in deferred maintenance. The MCPS staff said that they thought the deferred maintenance number was more like $2 billion.

It’s clear that MCPS is in a huge capital deficit, and we need to make sure our state and county officials recognize how important it is to fix. When you are in a hole, the first thing to do is: stop digging!

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Affordability of Housing

County Council Member Nancy Floreen posted information from a study on the amount and affordability of housing in the county. I asked Gaithersburg staff how we compare. Here is the result:

County: 33 percent of all residential housing units are rental units;

Staff: From our most current, published population report (ACS 5 year, 2015: verified apples to apples because Kirk includes the County for comparison, and the County is listed as 33 percent): Gaithersburg: 46 percent

County: 74 percent of renter households earn less than 100 percent of area median income;

Staff: From ACS, 5 Year, 2015, S2503: This is a trickier calculation. First, the income break nearest the AMI for a family of 4 is $110,300 is $99,999. I would say that we could factor in income rising, since Census data is kind of on the elderly side, but income isn’t really rising at all. That’s convenient for this purpose (only). The best we can do is an approximation to get a general sense of where we stand. There are 23,550 total households in Gaithersburg. 12,843 are owner-occupied (54%), and 10,707 (the 46% listed above) are renter occupied. So far so good. Census breaks the info down into groups of $5,000 to $50,000, and then lists $150,000 or more as its top tier. Since AMI is $110,300, then the tier listed as $75,000 to $99,999 along with the top tier is where we need to focus our number. Here’s how I would do the math, although you and Neil might think about this differently:

Renters at $99,000 and below: 79.1%
Renters between $100,000 – $149,999: 12.4%
Renters at $150,000 and above: 8.4%

Since AMI is $110,300, we could add 20% of 12.4% to 79.1% to capture those in the income category who edge into that middle tier. That would not make a huge difference, though. I would say between 79% and 80% of Gaithersburg renters earn less than 100% of AMI. That is consistent with what we know about Gaithersburg, generally.

County: and only 19 percent of rental units are affordable to households earning less than 50 percent of area median income.

If 50% of AMI is $55,150, then they should pay no more than $1,145 with no utilities (25%) and $1,378 if utilities are included (30%). First, the median rent in Gaithersburg is $1,542. Already not so good for low income renters. According to the ACS, there are 10,524 occupied units paying rent. Again, Census breaks don’t make this precise, but it is a close approximation. Their tiers are:

Less than $500: 408
$500-$999: 768
$1,000-$1,499: 3806

By those estimations, only 1176 (11%) are definitely affordable to those at or below 50% of AMI. You may want to bust the next category up another way, but I would say it would be fair to take 20% of the 3806 and classify that as “somewhat affordable” to those at or below 50% of AMI. That’s another 761, bringing the grand total up to about 18%.

Neil: How do we compare?

Not too far off. Although we are now on the good side of renter vs. owner, we still have more renters than the County. We have marginally more renters who are below 100% of AMI for the region. Very like the County, we have far too few units affordable to those at or below 50% of AMI. Thanks to progressive Council members, we are actively working on these issues every single day!

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Time for Balance

In an era of left-right political strife, it looks to me like we can forget the basics. While we are arguing about policy and allocating resources right or left, we forget to provide the essentials that everyone needs government to provide.

When I led the large HOA in Kentlands, it became very clear that everyone cared a lot about a few things — collecting the trash, managing the pool, plowing snow from our alleys, maintaining common buildings and amenities, and making sure we were fiscally sound. Everything else was nice to have, but only once the basics were covered.

In municipal government, it’s much the same — collect the recycling, plow the snow, maintain the roads, manage parks and events, and keep everyone safe. Educating the children and keeping traffic moving are on the list, except they are out of our control as a municipality. When I joined the council, I made it my mission to work with outside agencies to improve the areas outside of the city’s direct control.

As a commuter, our region is a bit of a nightmare. We have some of the worst traffic congestion in the country. I spent some time commuting from Gaithersburg to Reston — no job is worth that daily commute. Coming home on Fridays could take 2 painful hours. It’s not like I made the choice to live here and work there — when I bought my house I worked locally, but things change. And I could not understand why one of the wealthiest regions in the wealthiest country in the world could not manage its transportation.

Classroom space in our schools is another huge issue. My nearest elementary school was built for 650 students and has well over 1000 now, and growing every year. I see schools all over Gaithersburg and beyond at higher capacity.

Our infrastructure is stretched because of many factors. Our region is attractive — good jobs, good schools, safe streets — so people want to live here. Even when we don’t build more housing, people keep coming — the number of people in a household keeps growing.

The answer is to balance infrastructure with the demands of a growing population. The answer is many things — more transit, more roads, more schools. We’re out of balance. To catch up with school capacity would cost close to a billion dollars — that would get all the kids out of portables, build new schools to accommodate the 2500+ new students added to MCPS each year, and repair or replace the schools that are becoming dilapidated. That’s a lot of money in a system where we are happy when the state provides an extra $10 million in a year for school construction — not enough for a single school building.

The transportation system is a much bigger challenge. WMATA just determined that it needs $25 billion (with a B!) over the next 10 years to catch up on its infrastructure, and Metro only handles 15% of the work commutes in the region. Many officials believe that focusing new construction at Metro stations is the answer — but unless ALL the new residents use Metro, the new housing adds still more congestion to our roads.

It’s time for a new approach — we need to look at how we are allocating the budgets in the region and re-think where the money goes. From what I see of budgets in the region, a lot of the new spending is going anywhere but to the basic infrastructure and services that are so desperately needed here.

I’m not running for anything, I was elected to the Gaithersburg City Council in 2015 and I’m just trying to do the job that I was elected to do. I am not advocating for or against growth, but I am observing that growth happens and we’re not doing our region justice by ignoring the infrastructure to keep up. We can get there if we balance our priorities and take care of the essentials.

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Tax dollars well spent! Data-driven Road Maintenance in Gaithersburg

 

Last night, the Public Works dept. presented the results of the new system for monitoring the conditions of our roads, using a special truck that laser-scans the roadways. Our roads rated 10-points higher than surrounding jurisdictions! This leads to a process where inexpensive methods can be used to extend the life on sections in good condition, much more cost effective than major repairs on deteriorated roadways. Kudos to Public Works for forward-looking projects and data-driven decision making. Click to see the PowerPoint:

http://sirepub.gaithersburgmd.gov/sirepub/cache/2/gp2231kmzolf3irtpphl3zjv/6683702052018010327651.PDF

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Victory! And, Thanks!

My election owes much to many fine people.

To the voters of Gaithersburg, I appreciate your confidence and will work to maintain it. Not only in Kentlands and Lakelands, where the support was kind of overwhelming, but throughout our city.

To our elected officials:

Cathy Carlson Drzyzgula, my campaign chair, you will be missed on the Council. Your advice and encouragement and your unflagging support for the entire city leaves a void — so, don’t expect me to stop calling!

Jud Ashman, our great “new” mayor, your support, leadership, and energy are so important. Congrats on the well earned win, and thanks for everything so far and to come.

Michael Sesma, thanks for your endorsement, great work, and friendship.

Ryan Spiegel, all kidding aside, I appreciate sitting next to you, the snarky notes, and the political and governance insights. Congrats on another big win!

Robert Wu, you ran a great campaign and I’m very happy to serve with you. We got to know each other over the past year and you are a great asset to the city. Stealthy or no, I appreciate the mutual support during the heat of the campaign.

Henry Marraffa Jr, you ran a solid campaign and continue to contribute to our city, and I enjoy serving with you.

Sidney Katz, what can I say? I would not be doing this without your support. The example you set for steadiness and dedication are without peer. You are a superstar.

Cheryl C. Kagan, so many thanks for the endorsement but also for the ongoing stream of great advice and all your support for me and for our city.

Andrew Platt thanks for the endorsement, the planning, the input from your experience, and your ongoing energy on behalf of our city and our economic development.

And District 39 Delegate Charles Barkley (not on FB?), thanks for your support. You are a good man.

Campaign team:

My treasurer and dear friend, Ayesha Arora-Sharma, thanks for everything, as always. And Shelley Sharma, a great friend, for your help & support.

Neighbors, friends, and contributors: Jerry Stringham, Michael Bonnell, Steve Wilcox, Bikram Bakshi, Ann Marie Clements, Jennifer Carter, Joy Martin Nurmi, Leigh Henry, John P. Lin, Elaine Saba Koch, Bill Albright, Barney Gorin, James Mifsud, for the business people who provide the economic backbone for our city, for my many classmates from Wharton Executive MBA East class of 2005, and so many more, this means more than I’m capable of expressing. Bernard Unti for good company on the campaign trail, and Eileen E Noseworthy, Vicki Stander Understein, Julie M McGaughran for booth duty at Oktoberfest, Peg Nottingham for the website, and more!

Special thanks to Luc Brami and Shaun Auxier, Luc for the signs and banner, advice, & support, and Shaun for the awesome design work and everything you do.

And finally, but clearly not last, I could not do this without my family: Michelle Harris, Liz Harris, Jess Harris, Lona Feldman, Susan Feldman, Rich Lewis, Stephen Lewis, M’Liz Scotton Riechers, Mike Riechers, Robert K. Chester, Eric Mates, Juliet Guennoun, Sophia Guennoun, Sam Harris, Shirley Sieger, Mary Ann Elliott, and the innumerable Canadian cousins and extended family all over the world. Your love and support means everything.

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Bus Rapid Transit

At the August 31 work session of Gaithersburg’s Mayor and City Council, there were two presentations: an update on the Corridor Cities Transitway (CCT) project, and the findings of a study of the proposed 355 Bus Rapid Transit project that focused on right-of-way and cost issues.

As a quick summary, the CCT would be an upgraded bus system running in new, dedicated lanes from Shady Grove through King Farm, past Crown Farm, through the proposed Johns Hopkins development at Belward Farm, past Kentlands and ending at the Washington Grove MARC station. No auto lanes would be lost, and the dedicated bus lanes would provide a traffic-free (but not stop-light free) route, speeding up movement for commuters along the West side of Gaithersburg and nearby.

The focus of the state’s update on August 31 was on the environmental impact of the project, mainly the need to take away a “de minimus” amount of parkland alongside Great Seneca Highway, putting up retaining walls and providing reforestation. Several acres of forest (not formal parks) would be relocated if the project moves forward with the current plan.

In addition to the discussion about the CCT’s environmental impact, Mayor Ashman noted that he has requested that options be examined for providing two separate routes, one that ends at Belward Farm and the other bypassing Belward to shorten travel times to Kentlands and Metropolitan Grove. The Maryland Transit Administration representatives indicated that a response to this suggestion will be forthcoming in about a week.

The CCT project is approaching the 30% design phase, and is funded through completed design and through acquisition of the necessary rights-of-way. Actual construction funding is not yet approved. A consortium of businesses is supporting the CCT project, along with the Montgomery County government. Some residents have questioned the state’s ridership assumptions.

The 355 BRT project is at an earlier stage. It would run from the DC border all the way to Clarksburg, including about 4 miles in Gaithersburg. The goal is to improve transit and provide opportunities for the City to promote much-needed redevelopment along its aging commercial corridor. The city commissioned a consulting firm to examine some areas that would provide challenges for this project, either because of narrow roadways or because of the cost of acquiring the right-of-way alongside the existing road. The consultants looked at cost, road capacity, and speed of travel for the BRT system.

The options examined ranged from providing two dedicated “guideway” lanes (northbound and southbound), to a single dedicated lane (requiring some waiting time or having some buses run in normal traffic lanes), and even looked at (and quickly rejected) all buses running in traffic. The challenges in particular are at the Father Cuddy Bridge over the CSX Railroad tracks and, north of the bridge, the area passing a cemetery.

After going through the options, the consultants recommend a hybrid approach. The northern segment would have two dedicated BRT lanes and maintain the existing road lanes, while segments farther south would have a single dedicated lane, and the narrower bridge segment would eliminate one of the northbound auto lanes.

In addition to the right-of-way, the consultants looked at potential station locations. The 355 BRT line through Gaithersburg would have seven station stops. The stop locations in the original County documents had some issues, and the consultants proposed relocating several. For example, instead of a station at Montgomery Village Avenue, one of the busiest intersections in the City, the station would move south to Lakeforest Blvd, in the heart of one of the busier shopping areas.

The presentations can be found on the city’s website here. As you can see, the consultants did a thorough job in evaluating the trade-offs, and the result is a system that cuts the cost and minimizes the impact on existing properties. However, the consultants have not looked at how their recommendations effect the ability of the road to move people – ridership was outside of the scope of their study. I wonder if reducing the cost by narrowing the system to a single dedicated lane, and by losing one of the northbound automobile lanes on the bridge, would reduce the number of people that the road could move.

The purpose of the 355 BRT project is to increase the number of people we can move through the corridor and to our commercial centers. If we end up with a system that costs less but does not achieve this goal, then how are we helping our economic development? I’ve asked our Planning Department to see if they can look at this data based on the proposal and to make sure we are going to recommend a plan that does the job it’s supposed to do.

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Gaithersburg APFO Discussion

Great work session this evening on the Gaithersburg APFO (Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance). The direction given to staff was:

– Instead of putting a school’s district into moratorium, institute a school construction fee that would help MCPS with its school funding. The fee is proposed to be identical to the County’s fee (not currently collected inside Gaithersburg).

– The moratorium limit would be raised to 150% of MCPS capacity. There is some discussion over whether that number is too high or even if there should be a moratorium number — according to one of our Planning Board members, the state’s guidelines for APFOs do not allow them to trigger automatic moratoriums.

– There may be some cases where the capacity constraint would be waived. This list is under ongoing discussion.

Ryan Spiegel and I ran some numbers during the session, and at about $5000 per housing unit (a rough average for town homes and apartments), the Kentlands Blvd. master plan would generate $11.5 million, going a long way toward covering the cost of an elementary school. The developers we spoke with have no issue with the fee as long as they can be sure they won’t run into a moratorium after making plans.

The bottom line is, making new development possible seems to be the key trigger for MCPS to add capacity in its Capital Improvement Plans, so we’re moving in a positive direction with this new thinking on the APFO. And, adding a source of new funding to partially offset the capital cost should also help.

The record remains open on this discussion until September 11, and discussions are ongoing including the Planning Commission meeting on September 2 and the Mayor & Council meeting on September 21.

The packet from this evening’s meeting is available at the link below, and the video is here: http://video2.siretech.net/…/Mayor%20and%20Ci…/2355/2355.mp4

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